Publications

[1] "Channels of US Monetary Policy Spillover in International Bond Markets" (with Elias Albagli, Sebastian Claro and Damian Romero), Journal of Financial Economics, 2019, 134(2), 447-473.

We show significant US monetary policy (MP) spillovers to international bond markets. Our methodology identifies US MP shocks as the change in short-term Treasury yields around FOMC meetings and traces their effects on international bond yields using panel regressions. We emphasize three main results. First, US MP spillovers to long-term yields have increased substantially after the 2007–2009 global financial crisis. Second, spillovers are large compared with the effects of other events, and at least as large as the effects of domestic MP after 2008. Third, spillovers work through different channels, concentrated in risk-neutral rates (expectations of future MP rates) for developed countries, but predominantly on term premia in emerging markets. In interpreting these findings, we provide evidence consistent with an exchange rate channel, according to which foreign central banks face a trade-off between narrowing MP rate differentials or experiencing currency movements against the US dollar.



[2] "Decomposing Long-term Interest Rates: An International Comparison" (with Damian Romero), Journal of Fixed Income, 2016, 26(1), 61-73.

This paper analyzes the behavior of long-term interest rates for several developed and developing economies, identifying the risk-neutral and term premium components under different methodologies. We analyze which of these two channels affected interest rate movements in different monetary policy regimes and quantify the transmission of U.S. long-term yield to these economies using a spillover index. We find that movements in long-term interest rates in different monetary policy regimes are related to changes in the term premium for most countries.


[3] "Nominal Term Structure and Term Premia: Evidence from Chile" (with Alberto Naudon and Damian Romero), Applied Economics, 2016, 48(29), 2721-2735.

The downwards trend exhibited in Chile’s nominal term structure since 2003 has been a common pattern shared by other developed and developing economies. To understand the behaviour of the nominal yield curve in Chile, we rely on an affine dynamic term structure model which allows the term structure to decompose into the expected short-term interest rate (related to the monetary policy expectation) and the term premium. We show that most of the fall of long-term interest rates as well as its dynamics are related to the term premium rather than the expected short-term interest rate. Moreover, we find evidence that term premium is driven primarily by the US term premium and domestic nominal uncertainty derived from expected inflation.